NBA Lookahead: Why are trades around the NBA so complicated these days?

Every Thursday, I’ll be taking you through the big story heading into the weekend. Or maybe the weirdest story? Or maybe just something that makes me laugh that I think will make you laugh too. Essentially, if you’ve subscribed to The Bounce and are reading every day, we’re going to have the same fun here as we do in that space.

I’ve culled the weekend schedule for you to know what to pay attention to. Weird bad streaks against teams? Beefs you need to track? Fun games with matchups you may not have known were happening? We’ve got that for you. On top of that, we’ll have a good, old-fashioned Throwback Thursday to hit you with that feel-good nostalgia.

Let’s start with confusing trade scenarios.

Story to Watch: The complications of today’s trades

The Phoenix Suns made a very intriguing trade earlier this week by sending an unprotected 2031 first-round pick to the Utah Jazz in exchange for three first-rounders in 2025, 2027 and 2029. Those picks will be the least favorable of the three selections Utah owns between its own pick, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ first-round selections and the Minnesota Timberwolves’ firsts. Utah has control of those picks thanks to separate deals sending Rudy Gobert to Minnesota and Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland a few years ago. Why would Utah trade three firsts for one that lands six years from now? Why is Phoenix accumulating first-round picks?

It all revolves around Jimmy Butler’s quest to get to the Suns. We know he wants out of Miami because he’s said such and has displayed enough conduct detrimental to the team that the Heat have now suspended him twice for at least nine total games — all just within the last month! We know the Suns are in heavy pursuit of Butler, but it’s an incredibly elaborate endeavor. It’s already been discussed quite a bit, but this deal only happens with Bradley Beal waiving his no-trade clause and agreeing to be sent somewhere other than Phoenix.

The problem with that? We’re not sure he’ll actually do that. Maybe he’ll do it to go to the Milwaukee Bucks. Is it possible he’ll decide he wants to be in Miami? Despite pursuing Beal in the past to try and pair him with Butler and Bam Adebayo, does Miami actually want him at this point? The Heat want to remain competitive while also stockpiling draft picks and flexibility. The flexibility part would be gone if they swapped Butler for Beal, as the Suns guard is owed $111 million over two years after this season. But the logistics of the trade are far more involved than any of that, and this is how the NBA has designed matters for some reason.

The new collective bargaining agreement has implemented harsh financial penalties when teams find themselves in the luxury tax’s second apron. It’s extremely hard to make trades and add salary to the books when you’re in that threshold. There are currently four teams in the second apron: Phoenix, Minnesota, Milwaukee and the Boston Celtics. The New York Knicks are very close to it, and the Heat are about $2.5 million away from it.

For argument’s sake, let’s say Beal does lift his no-trade clause to go to Milwaukee and that the Bucks want him. Pulling off a trade still remains extremely complicated, because at least two of the potential three teams involved are in the second apron. The Suns would need to jettison Jusuf Nurkić and Grayson Allen, and the Bucks would need to get rid of Pat Connaughton in separate deals just to have an easier chance at pulling this off. Even then, it remains complex.

The other night, I was using the Spotrac trade machine for almost an hour, trying to concoct four- and five-team deals involving franchises like Toronto, Detroit and Utah just to try to find a way to get it done. I’d never call myself a wizard of the trade machine, but I’m pretty damn good at navigating and manufacturing deals that work under the league’s trade rules. After an hour of doing this, I closed my laptop and said, “I’ll just wait for John Hollinger to write it.”

The Suns have become incredibly confusing in how they’re trying to make this all work. Team owner Mat Ishbia has been so impulsive and poor with cap and asset management in his short time with the franchise that it’s given me some real insight into what I think it would look like if I was a billionaire in charge of an NBA franchise. I would be reckless because that’s just how I am with that kind of stuff. It’s a lot of “That’s a problem for Future Zach,” when I’m ordering too much sushi or perusing shoes on secondary market apps. That’s kind of how Ishbia has approached this entire quest for a title in such short time.

Hollinger wrote this about the recent decisions by the Suns. As they’ve said, “That’s a problem for Future Us” when it comes to mortgaging any future flexibility:

Of course, it’s that same impulsive habit under owner Mat Ishbia — chasing short-term sugar highs while burning the future to the ground — that motivates teams like Utah to enthusiastically participate in these deals.

In the last 18 months, the Brooklyn Nets, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Washington Wizards, Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz all have made bets of some size that the Suns will be terrible between 2026 and 2031. So far, so good: It’s early 2025, and Phoenix is an old, average team with zero cap flexibility and few draft assets.

Hollinger also nailed the perfect dismount in his article when he closed with this:

Basically, the fields have been salted through 2031. All that’s left to do now is starve. No wonder everybody wants to trade for Phoenix’s picks.

What an incredible line! I was thinking about this situation in my frustration of not being able to concoct a trade between four or five teams to get Butler to the Suns. I was blaming today’s CBA, which I still vehemently disagree with and fully believe shows the owners have once again overreacted by creating a worse situation for themselves than what they previously navigated. This second apron stuff makes trades too complicated. I want to talk about basketball when a deal happens or is even rumored. I don’t want to have to call my CPA to figure out the ramifications.

At the same time, the Suns’ situation is not a product of the CBA. It’s worsened by the new CBA, but it’s not a document’s fault. This is a product of Ishbia finding a pretty new pet and doing this:

I have no idea what’s going to come of this whole situation in the next two weeks leading up to the trade deadline. Butler is getting himself suspended in a possible effort to try to get himself traded. The Suns are making a move so they can make other moves. They’ll attach a pick to Nurkić and dangle him out there and probably will do the same for Allen. Or maybe both picks will go towards getting Butler? It’s hard to say. We do know that a bunch of teams have looked at the Suns and decided shorting their future is a lucrative move.

Games on the Radar

Do you plan out your weekend around your sports-viewing schedule? You’re not alone. Are you the type who wants to look like a sports savant by going to your local sports bar, suggesting a game to put on and then reveling in the praise you’ll get from fellow patrons for knowing what to watch? You’re home. Are you the type to just fly by the seat of your pants and wing it last minute when you remember games are on? Bookmark this post and refer to it later! These are the best games to pay attention to this weekend.

(All times Eastern)

Thursday

San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers, 2 p.m., NBA TV: Live from Paris! Victor Wembanyama will play in front of his fellow countrymen — and Tyrese Haliburton finally gets some time on a basketball court in France.

Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets, 9 p.m., NBA League Pass: The Kings are on a back-to-back, but this is a great showdown between red-hot Sacramento and a Denver team that is also rolling.

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m., TNT: It’s ’80s night in Rivalry Week, as we look for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to carry on the Celtics-Lakers tradition against LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Friday

New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m., NBA TV: Years ago, this would have been an incredibly dynamic matchup because of Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. Now? I want to see Yves Missi battle Zach Edey.

Saturday

Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs, 12 p.m., ESPN: That’s right! They’re still in Paris to play another game. Will I keep making Haliburton/Olympics jokes throughout these two matchups? Mais oui!

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, 3 p.m., ABC: In last year’s playoffs, Minnesota ended Denver’s hopes of winning back-to-back titles. Now, the Nuggets want to show the Wolves why trading Karl-Anthony Towns for financial flexibility was a bad idea.

Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m., NBA League Pass: We just saw a brilliant matchup between these two teams Wednesday night. Let’s see if the Cavs can get some revenge at home.

Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m., NBA League Pass: Watch as much Kings basketball as you can. Watch as much Knicks basketball as you can. Those statements would have been crazy to read five years ago.

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors, 8:30 p.m., ABC: It’s LeBron James against Steph Curry. I’ll keep saying it: We don’t know how many of these matchups we have left between the two, so soak it in.

Sunday

Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, 6 p.m., NBA League Pass: This is literally the only game on Sunday’s schedule. It’s almost like the NFL conference championships are going on that day.

Throwback Thursday: Some absurd scoring binges

While some people talk about January as the dog days of the season, maybe this time leading up to the NBA trade deadline and All-Star Weekend is actually prime for scoring in the league. Think about yesterday, Jan. 22, as a perfect example of this. Last year, on that date, we saw a night in NBA scoring we’d seen only once prior (1978 with David Thompson and George Gervin). On the same day (two different games), Joel Embiid dropped 70 points in a win over Wembanyama and the Spurs, while Karl-Anthony Towns scored 62 in a loss to the Charlotte Hornets.


Joel Embiid had 70 points against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs center on Jan. 22, 2024. (Bill Streicher / USA Today)

It was an anomaly for someone to go for 70 while another player scored 60 on the same night. There had been only 13 games of players breaking the 70-point threshold before Embiid did it. We’d only seen 85 games of someone scoring at least 60 points in NBA history. To see both of those things happen in one night was ridiculous and rare. Embiid shot 24 of 41 from the field and took only two 3-pointers (made one). He made 21 of 23 from the free-throw line and grabbed 18 rebounds (nine offensive) while dishing five assists. It was truly a historic game in so many ways.

Towns had a very weird game in his high-scoring loss to the Hornets. His 62 points set a franchise record and career high for him. He had 22 points in the first quarter, then scored another 22 in the second period. Towns add 14 points in the third quarter to give him 58 points entering the final frame. Plus, the Wolves were housing the Hornets, leading by 15 points through three quarters. But the final result was a complete collapse by the Wolves, as they became too obsessed with getting Towns scoring opportunities instead of closing out the game. He had four points on 2-of-10 shooting in the fourth, and the Wolves were outscored 36-18 in the quarter to lose the game.

That’s not it for scoring on Jan. 22, though. This date saw Kobe Bryant’s 81-point performance on the Toronto Raptors in 2006. It marked the second-highest individual scoring effort in league history, behind Wilt Chamberlain’s 100 points in 1962. Bryant made 28 of 46 from the field, shot 7 of 13 from deep and hit 18 of 20 from the stripe. He had 28 of his 81 in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Raptors by nine in the final 12 minutes of a 122-104 win. Lamar Odom was the only other Laker to score in the fourth, hitting a 3-pointer on an assist from Bryant — one of his two assists that night.

We’re not done talking about scoring binges! On this date — Jan. 23 — in 2015, Klay Thompson had his own scoring binge. In a 52-point performance by Thompson during a win over Sacramento, the other Splash Brother had his infamous 37-point quarter. It’s the most points any NBA player has ever scored in a quarter. He posted 13-of-13 shooting in the third quarter and made 9 of 9 from deep. Curry and Draymond Green each had a two-point bucket in the quarter. The rest was all Klay. I remember being in a bar in Atlanta that night, and we caught the moment on NBA TV while ordering drinks. We stood there in disbelief watching it unfold in front of us. We rooted for Klay in the brief time he played in that game’s fourth quarter, when Steve Kerr left him in to chase some points while the other starters were done for the night.

That was the only time Thompson missed in the second half. He finished with two points on two free throws in the two-plus minutes he played in the final quarter, ultimately going 0-for-3 from the field. As you’d expect, Marreese Speights finished off the night by scoring 15 in the final 12 minutes.

( Top photo: Issac Baldizon / Getty Images )

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