Who are the league’s absolute best teams? Great question, one that feels harder to answer than previous seasons.
Ask any hockey fan which five teams have the best shot at the Stanley Cup, and chances are you’ll get many different answers. This year feels wide open, and that’s because there is a large group of great teams, but not many teams truly separating themselves in either direction. Parity!
There’s a reason for that. Every team in the seemingly large contender’s circle has a unique reason they can win it all — a signature strength that sets them apart. But they also have a fatal flaw that could just as well be why it all comes crashing down. There are a plethora of reasons these teams are good or not good enough, but each team does seem to have a unique signifier compared to the other contenders — both good and bad.
The West has six teams with a chance to win the Stanley Cup north of 2.5 percent (sorry Minnesota). These are each team’s signature strengths and fatal flaws.
(Data as of January 27.)
Stanley Cup chances: 27.0%
Signature Strength
The best player in the world… and also Connor McDavid
The Oilers are the Stanley Cup favorite and it’s for the same reason that their odds have been so high over the past few seasons: they have the best player in the world and other teams do not.
The catch? This time that means Leon Draisaitl.
Look, the best player in the world is still Connor McDavid, there’s no question about that. But this year? Draisaitl has been better. He’s scoring more, he’s carried the team when McDavid has been sidelined, and most importantly he’s turned into a shutdown force. Draisaitl has been one of the league’s most effective defensive forwards this season and it’s completely unlocked his game to reach even higher heights.
Before this season there were still debates about Draisaitl’s place in the league’s hierarchy, partly due to his defensive ability. Now, there’s no question. His plus-five Defensive Rating is one of the highest marks in the league and he’s putting up career best on-ice numbers at five-on-five. He’s been the complete package and leads the league with a Net Rating of plus-17.8. The next best player, McDavid, is at plus-14.7.
A one-two punch like that down the middle? Good luck everyone else. The duo’s combined projected Net Rating is plus-59 which is 10 goals clear of the league’s next best duo (Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar).
That’s a foundation that’s very difficult to beat and is exactly what fuels Edmonton’s league-leading Cup odds. The Oilers are the team to beat for good reason. Draisaitl leveling up even further is a big part of it.
Fatal Flaw
The medium-est goalie in the world
Despite being the current Stanley Cup favorites, a lot of people still don’t quite believe in Edmonton to that degree. For good reason.
A lot of Edmonton’s value is concentrated at the top of the lineup, leaving plenty of holes elsewhere. On balance, it works out great because the Oilers have the best top-end talent in the league, but it does leave the team vulnerable otherwise. As great as the team’s top end is, it unfortunately does not include their starting goalie — an issue other contenders in the West don’t quite share.
Stuart Skinner is not a bad goalie, but he’s certainly a frightening one. When he’s on, he looks more than capable of being the steady presence necessary for the league’s best team to take care of the rest. The bar for how good Skinner needs to be is not that high, either — and yet it’s a bar he often struggles to reach. When Skinner is bad, he’s bad. During those stretches, Skinner is more than capable of single-handedly losing a playoff series. That’s the truth with a lot of goalies in this league outside the true upper echelon, but Skinner feels especially susceptible to the hot-cold roller coaster.
In Calvin Pickard, there’s also no safety net beyond Skinner either. It’s him or bust. For the league’s best group of skaters, that thought is terrifying.
Connor Hellebuyck somehow keeps improving year-on-year in Winnipeg’s net. (Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
Winnipeg Jets
Stanley Cup chances: 8.5%
Signature Strength
A Hall of Fame goalie at the peak of his powers
The Jets are a good team without Connor Hellebuyck in net. This season they’ve shown more substance in front of him than in the past with the league’s best power play and solid work at five-on-five.
But if we’re talking signature strength, the Jets are still defined by having the league’s best goalie. Hellebuyck is Winnipeg’s cheat code, giving the Jets a chance to win every single night and almost peerless in his consistency at that level. Every season, like clockwork, Hellebuyck is right at the top. That’s hard to do for a goalie; Hellebuyck is built differently.
This season might be his best work yet. During the 2022-23 season, Hellebuyck saved 0.53 goals above expected per game and upped that to 0.66 last season. This year he’s managed to up the ante further with 0.88 goals saved per game, which would be the best mark in the analytics era.
Somehow, the best got better. If Hellebuyck can channel that dominance in the playoffs, the Jets can go extremely deep.
Fatal Flaw
A just good roster in front of him
Depending on goaltending as a signature strength in a playoff series is scary. Just ask these very Jets, who have been ousted in the first round in back-to-back seasons. Both series were lost in five games. Both series saw Hellebuyck uncharacteristically struggle, allowing 0.8 goals above expected per game.
No matter how great a goalie is, small-sample randomness can make him look ordinary. A great goalie can steal a series on his own, but it’s imperative for the team in front of him to be good enough to not need to. In the last two playoffs, Winnipeg’s skaters also weren’t good enough.
That brings us to this season where the roster looks a lot better — clearly, considering they have the second-best odds in the West. The Jets are not just Hellebuyck and 18 guys.
Josh Morrissey is legitimately one of the best defensemen in the league. Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor’s stronger commitment to defense and elite power-play work has the duo looking like legit stars. Both Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabriel Vilardi have been stellar. Add some strong depth pieces to that and Winnipeg’s skaters look well-positioned to make the most of another excellent Hellebuyck season.
The roster is good… but is it great enough? We’re not trying to move goal posts here, but if we’re talking fatal flaws, can the team’s skaters stack up to the other contenders? Will Winnipeg’s stars shine bright enough relative to the other superstars? Will the holes the team has (2C and the third pair) add further pressure to the stars? Despite improvement, those questions still persist.
Stanley Cup chances: 7.7%
Signature Strength
All those forwards
Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment and Logan Stankoven. In the words of colleague Pierre LeBrun — holy mama! That is a loaded group of forwards, all eight of which grade out as top-six caliber. There isn’t a team in the league that can match that.
It’s not just that the Stars have a plethora of great forwards, it’s also how well they all fit together, which creates some flexibility to mix-and-match. The Stars have speed, skill, snarl and size up front.
Dallas has no weak links in its forward corps, which is crucial come playoff time. Now the Stars need some of those players to step up and establish themselves as strong links capable of going toe-to-toe with the best of the West. Over the last 20 games, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston are finally looking the part on that front after a slow start. Robertson has 10 goals and 26 points during that stretch while Johnston has 22 points.
If that duo can keep that up as they’ve shown they’re fully capable of before, look out. Combine that with Duchene’s dominant second line plus a loaded third line and the Stars will be attacking in very-difficult-to-stop waves.
Fatal Flaw
All those defensemen
Ilya Lyubushkin, Nils Lundkvist, Matt Dumba and Brendan Smith. Woof.
The Stars have three excellent defensemen in Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell with the first two being true No. 1 studs. That makes a life a lot easier for the forwards, but there’s a sizeable gap between those three and the others filling out the rest of the lineup. The hole left in Chris Tanev’s absence is massive.
The Stars are a bit vulnerable after their star-studded top three and have a massive need for one more top-four defenseman. As solid as Lyubushkin has been this season, he’s still better served in a third-pair role. Pushing him down there would also offer some stability in an area where there’s been trouble, as the other three options have looked rough. Any hope that Matt Dumba could regain his previous form as a top-four defenseman was abandoned almost immediately while both Lundkqvist and Smith should probably only be trusted for spot duty as a No. 7.
When filling out a defense corps, it’s all about trust. As trustworthy as the top half feels, the bottom half is a major issue and if not addressed could lead to the Stars’ demise this season.
Matt Dumba and the rest of the Stars’ depth defensemen struggle to match the forward corps’ depth. (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
Stanley Cup chances: 3.8%
Signature Strength
Team defense at the most important positions
Once again, the Kings are one of the league’s best defensive teams — and they’re about to add to that with Drew Doughty returning to the lineup very soon.
Defense has been Los Angeles’ calling card in the entire Kopitar-Doughty era, but over the last few years that strength has been bolstered further. Down the middle, the Kings have a 1-2-3 defensive punch that’s the envy of the league with Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield and Phillip Danault. On the back end, Mikey Anderson and Vladislav Gavrikov formed one of the absolute best shutdown pairs in the league in Doughty’s absence. With Doughty back, the Kings should have a formidable top four with an exceptional capacity to defend.
Defense is a team game for the Kings, but it’s their anchors at key positions that create that advantage. No team can match Los Angeles’ shutdown capability on three lines and two pairs and it’s why the Kings currently have the league’s best projected Defensive Rating at plus-29.
That makes life real easy for Darcy Kuemper, though it helps that he’s bounced back greatly in Los Angeles. His 13 goals saved above expected ranks 11th in the league.
Come playoff time, the Kings will be extremely difficult to score on.
Fatal Flaw
Team offense at the most important positions
As great as all those players are defensively, they don’t bring anywhere close to the same heat offensively. Kopitar is a great offensive forward still — just not compared to other first-line centers. Same goes for Doughty and other No. 1 defensemen. Up front, Byfield and Danault are fine in that regard relative to their roles, but not world-beaters. On the back end, Anderson and Gavrikov are both below-average offensive players. That’s fine, it’s not their skill set, but it does leave the team wanting.
The Kings do have wingers that add offense, but again, they’re lacking relative to other contenders. Adrian Kempe is a terrific offensive talent and Los Angeles’ most important player in that regard. He alone is not enough, especially given he doesn’t stack up favorably to the league’s best wingers. It would help if Kevin Fiala could get back on a point-per-game track, but he’s scoring at just a 51-point pace this season.
The Kings have depth, but they still lack the kind of game-breaking offensive stars that can take them to the next level. It’s what’s been apparent in three straight first-round losses to the Oilers and it could again be a problem this season. The league’s best defensive team looks just average offensively — will that be enough?
Stanley Cup chances: 3.3%
Signature Strength
Globetrotter mode
Very few teams play their top line and top pair together as often as the Avalanche. When you have two of the best players in hockey, why not overwhelm the opposition? The ability for the Avalanche to throw Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar over the boards is a cheat code, one no other team can match because no other team has a top-two center to go with a top-two defenseman.
This season, MacKinnon and Makar have played 593 minutes together at five-on-five and in that time they’ve earned 62 percent of expected goals and 57 percent of actual goals. No surprise for such an elite combo — they’ve dominated the opposition, looking like the Harlem Globetrotters on many shifts.
It’ll be interesting to see whether the duo can keep up their Globetrotter ways without Mikko Rantanen, though. The two key pieces remain intact and Martin Necas is pretty darn good offensively himself. He also has the speed to match MacKinnon and Makar which should make for a good fit. Still, it’ll be something to watch in the second half as it does look like Colorado’s signature strength has been weakened, lowering the team’s Cup odds in the process.
No other team can boast such a strong combination of top center and top defenseman. (James Guillory / Imagn Images)
Fatal Flaw
Generals mode
As good as the Avalanche are when MacKinnon and Makar share the ice together, they have a massive problem otherwise.
The Avalanche still outscore their opponents when their superstar duo are apart (55 percent of actual goals), but get badly out-chanced (43 percent of expected goals). When both players are off they lose the scoring chance battle marginally (48 percent of expected goals) and have been outscored badly (41 percent of actual goals). Essentially, the Avalanche live and die by the minutes MacKinnon and Makar spend together where they look like the Harlem Globetrotters. Otherwise, it’s Washington Generals time.
Depth is the biggest issue facing the Avalanche and it doesn’t feel like getting Jack Drury on top of Martin Necas will solve that. The team has gone through injury troubles, Casey Mittelstadt hasn’t worked out as expected and the rest of the supporting cast just hasn’t cut it. The forwards have not been good enough.
What seems to get lost in the discussion when it comes to Colorado’s depth, though, is that it’s not just the forwards. The team’s biggest issue might just be Samuel Girard and Josh Manson on the second pair as neither player has played up to that caliber this season. Together they’ve earned a 47 percent xG rate and just 40 percent of goals this season.
Why are the Avalanche not as good when MacKinnon and Makar are out there, but apart? It probably has something to do with MacKinnon playing with the other two pairs and Makar playing with the other three lines. If the Avalanche want to contend this season, the team’s depth issues need to be addressed.
Stanley Cup chances: 2.8%
Signature Strength
Center studs
It’s difficult to know exactly how Vegas prefers to line up when healthy. Outside of the top line, the Golden Knights don’t have a single other line that’s played 150 or more minutes together. That’s something no other contender can say where the average is at least three lines above that mark. Essentially, almost every other contender has line-to-line consistency — Vegas juggles.
There’s good reason for that and that flexibility might be one of Vegas’ key advantages. The reason Vegas is able to juggle is because the team has the deepest center group in the league. Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl, William Karlsson and Nicolas Roy combine for the second-most center value behind Edmonton. All four are well above average for their roles with Karlsson and Roy being especially advantageous in the bottom six.
That Karlsson and Roy are too good for the bottom six means they need to find more minutes elsewhere and that’s likely where some of the mixing and matching comes in. Having all these different looks to throw at your opponent is a nightmare for opposing scouts, and that all starts with a deep center core. It’s arguably the most important position and Vegas is extremely well set in that department.
Fatal Flaw
Winger duds
As great as the centers are, there’s another reason for all the mixing and matching — the team’s wingers are still lacking.
It’s nice that Mark Stone has been (mostly) healthy and looks like his vintage self again. It’s nice that Ivan Barbashev looks great on the top line. It’s nice that Pavel Dorofeyev has emerged as a genuine top-six forward. And it’s also nice that Vegas has struck reclamation gold in Victor Olofsson. As a whole, the Golden Knights look a lot better on this front than many could’ve reasonably expected at the start of the season.
And yet it’s hard to have that much faith in that top-six crew compared to what other contenders can boast. The bottom-six wingers don’t really inspire either.
The Golden Knights are great where it matters: down the middle and on the back end with a rock-solid top four. But that group is doing a lot of the heavy lifting for a team that’s still in need of capable winger support.
Data via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
(Top photo of Leon Draisaitl and Jack Eichel: Alex Goodlett and Luke Hales / Getty Images)
