MLB 2025 farm system rankings: Keith Law ranks all 30 teams, Mariners are new No. 1

The Mariners placed six prospects on the top 100, one on the just missed column, and the next two guys after the just missed group (as in, if I’d had time to keep adding guys to that piece rather than moving on to write this and the top 20s) were actually both Mariners, as well. They’ve drafted extremely well in the last seven years, at least, and their last three international free agent classes all look very good out of the chute. They had a rare opportunity with three picks in the top 30 in 2023 and went all-in, taking three high-upside high school hitters, one of whom is in the top 10 already (Colt Emerson) and another might be a star if he comes back all the way from a torn ACL (Jonny Farmelo). It was a huge year for teenagers in Seattle’s system taking steps forward; most of these guys were in their system a year ago, when I ranked them 20th, but other than Farmelo’s injury, the Mariners had almost everything go right for them in 2024, including real improvements in performance and skills from all of their top-100 prospects. This ranking comes after they traded two guys who would have been in their top 15 in the Randy Arozarena trade, making it even more impressive that they can still rank up here. The Mariners were ranked 28th going into 2017, then dead last going into 2018, which feels like a lifetime ago for so many reasons; they were second going into 2022, but I believe this is the first time I’ve ever had them on top.

Boston’s system had a chance to be first before the Garrett Crochet trade, which sent two players on my top 100 to the White Sox (for good reason, though). They’ve got two guys in the top 10, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg — the system is still loaded with position players who at least have everyday ceilings, including a steady stream of potential stars coming out of their international program. It just makes it all the more puzzling that the new baseball operations heads decided to pull a midnight massacre on their scouting group, notably the pro side, just as the system has recovered from a low point in the wake of the 2018 World Series win. Farm systems don’t get and stay good by accident, or magic. It takes people.

Even without counting Roki Sasaki as a prospect, the Dodgers still have one of the best and deepest systems in the sport. They have stayed that way since Andrew Friedman first took over as president of baseball operations, because he has maintained sizable scouting staffs on the amateur, pro, and international sides; built up their R&D department; and brought the people-management style he used in Tampa to the bigger budgets (OK, much bigger budgets) of Los Angeles. Teams that try to do this on the cheap haven’t been able to sustain success like the Dodgers have. The Dodgers’ system right now still has a bunch of high-upside position players and arms, with an emphasis on athletes, complemented by some higher-floor finds from the college ranks in the draft, usually coming beyond the first round.

The Diamondbacks have quietly built a powerhouse organization in the desert under Mike Hazen, even if they do it in the shadow of the 2024 World Series champions. They’ve developed a strong pipeline of young hitters, most of whom at least started out up the middle, with a few potential stars at the top and a lot of depth in hitters who project to at least have backup or bench roles. They are lighter on the pitching side, having leaned toward bats in the draft the last four years; they’ve had 13 picks in the top two rounds from 2021-24 and only used two on pitchers.

The Guardians have a reputation as premium developers of pitching, which they’ve earned after the successes of guys like Shane Bieber and Tanner Bibee and Bobby Bee Bee, but right now their system is stacked with the bats they’re going to need to stay contenders in an improving AL Central. Nine of their top 10 prospects right now are hitters, six of whom made the top 100, while their remaining pitching prospects are more back-end starters who don’t have much velocity … well, not yet.

The Cubs have four guys on the top 100 and two on the just-missed list, with some intriguing bats right behind them — but Chicago, like a couple of the teams ahead of them, is also light on the pitching side. They join the Guardians and Red Sox as analytics-heavy teams that have eschewed pitching in the upper rounds of the draft. The Cubs took one big swing on an arm in 2022 when they selected Cade Horton, who’s going to be very good if he stays healthy. I’m not sure there’s a likely (odds over 50 percent) MLB starting pitcher in the system after Horton, however. In most years that would push them out of my top 10, but the minors are just down as a whole, and there aren’t that many pitchers on my top 100.

This has to be the best Tigers system I’ve ever written up, probably the best since their minors had guys like Justin Verlander, Curtis Granderson, Cameron Maybin and company 20 years ago. They’re drafting better and developing better, they’ve made some very shrewd trades (the Jack Flaherty one really stands out as a winner), and they seem to have targeted some more polished hitters on the international market to get guys who better fit their player development regime. It’s a huge turnaround over where they were when the pandemic hit.

I’m a little surprised the Reds haven’t had more major-league success given how good their farm system has been in the last few years, but they’ve hit some injuries and other bad luck along the way. I’m still optimistic that the next playoff team from Cincinnati is going to be led by players currently in the organization. They had another strong draft last year, highlighted by the No. 2 pick, Chase Burns, and they’re probably going to get 8-10 big leaguers out of the 2022-23 drafts when it’s all said and done. They do have to keep these guys healthy, which has been a challenge, and they have a couple of prospects who really need to manage their conditioning as they get older.

The Rays only put two guys on the top 100, but the quality doesn’t fall off as quickly as you move through their top 20 as it does for most organizations. They still develop talent as well as any team in baseball, and they have a lot of depth, especially in potential starting pitching, that at least somewhat mitigates the paucity of likely stars in the system beyond Carson Williams. They have a good idea of what works for them, especially with pitching, and they target guys who fit it — never more so than when trading with other clubs, as they have one of the strongest pro scouting units in the game and they work closely with R&D on acquisitions. And a year from now, they might have several more “likely stars” in the system, depending on how some guys’ full-season debuts go.

The Brewers have a quietly solid system, likely to produce a lot of big leaguers but maybe just one or two stars (we’ll see how Jesus Made, who looked the part of a future superstar in the DSL last year, fares when he comes to the U.S. this year). It’s a very strong group of teenagers on both sides of the ball who are all promising but several years away, with the prospects who are closer to the majors more likely to contribute in smaller roles as solid regulars, back-end starters, or relievers.

It’s top-heavy, with three guys in the top 50 and one on the just-missed list, but they have a lot of potential in the lowest levels, from the Low-A level on down to the DSL. I always value depth in these rankings, so this is an unusually high ranking for a farm system that has a lot of high-risk, high-reward guys in the top 20. They might have five or six stars — real impact types on either side of the ball — in the system right now, and if that’s all they get, that’s still going to be a ton of major-league value.

Chicago’s system has improved dramatically in the last 18 months, thanks to a couple of big trades and some draft successes, although the list drops off significantly after the top six and they still don’t have the depth that every team needs to fill out the back of a roster. They have three former top-100 prospects who all need to do something to get back on track this year, plus 2023 first-rounder Jacob Gonzalez, who hasn’t looked anywhere near as good in pro ball as he did in college. This is actually one spot lower than they were last year, the result of so many guys going backward in the system in 2024, but way up from where they were in 2023 (28) and 2022 (30, also known as Da Worst).

The Rangers won the World Series in 2023 and almost everything went wrong in 2024, except on the farm, where Sebastian Walcott blew up (after a slow start) to reach Double A as an 18-year-old, Kumar Rocker got healthy and reached the majors, Alejandro Rosario turned into a completely new pitcher, they had a very solid draft class despite picking last in each round … and (Malcolm) more. They also have a big collection of probably reliever types who could help them build a cheap and effective bullpen in a year or two — more likely two.

The Cardinals have a lot of untapped potential in their system beyond their top five, and perhaps Rob Cerfolio, newly hired from the Guardians to run player development, can help some of the prospects here who’ve plateaued get back on track. Right now it’s a big pile of prospects who’ll get to the majors, but maybe not as impact players — fifth starters and middle relievers and backups — yet some of them at least have the tools or skills to be something more. The talent here probably outstrips the production you see on the stat sheets.

The Mets have drafted well for a decade, and had some big hits on the international free agent side — not even counting the guy they just signed last month, Elian Peña, who at least sounds like the next Dominican superstar — and even with multiple trades that have shipped out a lot of prospect talent, they still come in right at the median. The tier behind their three top 100 guys is packed with upside, and there are 4-5 guys in the back half of their top 20 who at least offer a sliver of ceiling along with the probability of some big-league value.

The Pirates’ system is solid, although I could see their fans wishing this ranking was higher. They’ve had too many top guys stall out, unfortunately, including several high-bonus guys from the draft like Termarr Johnson (still on the top 100) and Anthony Solometo (not on the top 100 … or their top 10). They’ve also had less success on the international front in the last few cycles, and that’s reflected in their top 10 in particular. The trade for Nick Yorke — which, to be honest, I didn’t love for them at the time — now looks like it might have been a steal.

The Nats’ talent is on the upswing, but they promote guys so quickly that they may end up in the playoffs before they have a top-10 system. Sixty percent of the Juan Soto trade is in the majors now, and 20 percent of it might not turn into anything (the other player they received was Luke Voit, who played in the Mexican League last year). They had a great draft last year to inject a lot of highly polished college players into the system, backed up with some upside plays. Their international pipeline has dried up recently post-Soto, though; they’ve spent big on some top IFAs, but none have panned out since he did.

The Marlins went from fourth to 14th to 21st to 26th over the last four winters, so they’ve halted their slide thanks primarily to new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix’s decision to tear it all down. The on-field product at the MLB level may be ugly this year, but the future is brighter. We’ll see how the last two drafts, which were both topped off with two big swings on high school players, pan out — the upside is huge, as is the risk that they don’t work out.

The Twins have the most lowercase-m midwestern system there is. They have two prospects who look like they’ll be superstars in Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, and a pitcher who might join them in Charlee Soto. They have a lot of nice prospects behind them, guys who’ll play in the majors, have value, but probably won’t be difference-makers. They draft well, they develop well. They don’t seem to do anything poorly. And they’re just kind of in the middle. It’s a really nice system. They all say “hi” to you on the street. I want to be a little more excited about it.

The flood of position-player talent coming out of the Orioles’ system has slowed to a trickle, as it turns out that it is much harder to find good players when you draft near the end of the first round than when you’re in the top five. Their return to international free agency has netted them their top prospect and a lot of talented players who are still teenagers and still developing at the lowest levels of the system. There still isn’t much pitching here, which is clearly a strategic decision by the organization.

The Yankees had a tough year on the farm, with three of their top arms getting hurt, two of their top bats going backward at the plate, and the trades for Juan Soto, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Mark Leiter Jr. all depleting their top 20 further. Their 2024 draft class looks promising and they always have talent coming from the international side. It’s just hard to overcome all of the things that went sideways for them last year.

This seems like a big year for the Royals’ system, with a lot of guys who are entering make-or-break years (so to speak … it’s never really too late for a prospect until he’s released) or who might be entering breakout years, although right now the arrow is pointing down slightly. New scouting director Brian Bridges’ first draft was very promising, with Jac Caglianone maybe the best power-hitting prospect the Royals have had in … uh … a very long time. (Seriously. Bob Hamelin? I have to be forgetting someone.) They have a lot of arms you’d like to get who just haven’t put it all together yet, although last year’s second rounder David Shields is probably the most polished high school arm they’ve drafted in a decade. I think that arrow will swing around to point up by this time next year.

The Rockies had as many prospects suffer through bad years as any system in baseball, whether it was injuries or non-performance. The whole Double-A Hartford group of bats scuffled at least in the first half, and some, like Sterlin Thompson, never turned it around. Benny Montgomery, their first-round pick in 2021, had shoulder surgery. Gabriel Hughes returned from 2023 Tommy John surgery, but his stuff was down and he struggled to throw strikes in the AFL. Adael Amador hit .230/.343/.376 in Hartford after a stronger second half. Maybe this year will be better than the last.

Their 2022 draft, in which they had two extra picks on Day 1, hasn’t panned out at all, as first-rounder Brandon Barriera had Tommy John surgery and their other big high school pick, Tucker Toman, hasn’t hit at all. The Jays 2023 draft class didn’t get off to a much better start, although Arjun Nimmala had a great second half and is still just 19. Their Florida Complex League club was also one of the weakest in the league in terms of prospects. I’m bullish on their 2024 draft class, and I’m even more bullish on their announcement that my former colleague when I was with the Blue Jays, Marc Tramuta, is their new amateur scouting director.

A.J. Preller traded them all away, sadly, and even after landing two of the top international free agents from the last two classes, it’s a bottom-third system. The trades brought the Padres to the playoffs twice in the last three years, so there was a purpose to it, but the upshot is now the system is about as bare as it’s been in Preller’s tenure. If you’re looking for reasons for optimism beyond their top two prospects (Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries, both in the top 31 overall), they have a collection of high-upside arms who’ll be in Low A and the Arizona Complex League to start 2025, one or more of whom could take a big leap with some experience.

The Giants have had a lot of first-round draft misses — Joey Bart, Hunter Bishop, Will Bednar, and probably Reggie Crawford — and it’s killed the system, to be completely candid. They’ve had some modest draft wins — Patrick Bailey, Hayden Birdsong, Tyler Fitzgerald, to name a few — but it’s hard to build a system when you miss in the first round more than you hit. Some international free agent successes have helped, and they could have some late bloomers kicking around from some of their later round picks.

I’m going to keep sticking the names of fictional places where the Gassotonia Athletics’ city name should be until they land somewhere because the whole thing is ridiculous. Anyway, their system isn’t good, but it is interesting — they’ve expanded their palates, so to speak, drafting and trading for some higher-upside guys here and there; we’ll see how it works out in the end, but I would much rather see them roll the dice to try to get a critical hit than draft guys who couldn’t beat a single kobold on the first level.

Atlanta’s farm is down from years of contention, with Alex Anthopoulos trading a lot of prospects away to build and maintain a playoff roster, and some drafts that haven’t worked out, including the 2022 class that started with three high school pitchers, all of whom have had Tommy John since signing. They’re also still slowly recovering from the years they spent banned from participating in international free agency for rules violations in the mid-2010s, although now you can see some more prospects from Latin America popping up on their top 20 list.

The Astros didn’t have a top-100 prospect until they picked up Cam Smith from the Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade, which is the result of a lot of years of, frankly, not very good drafts. The 2019 draft gave them Hunter Brown; he’s the last Astros draft pick to generate 1 WAR of major-league value. They’ve drafted a lot of position players who project as platoon or extra guys, and a lot of pitchers who project as fifth starters — often guys with command but not stuff — or middle relievers. And they’ve traded some solid prospects, including Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, Chayce McDermott, and Drew Gilbert, further depleting the system.

It’s not personal that I keep ranking the Angels low, but they are simply not trying to build a farm system. Their 2022 and 2023 first-rounders are already in the big leagues. Their 2024 first-rounder was No. 37 on my pre-draft rankings. The all-pitching (all but one from college) draft from 2021 hasn’t produced 1 WAR in total so far. And they’re rushing their best Latin American prospects to higher levels — Nelson Rada was in Double A at age 18 all of last year! The impetus in Anaheim is to win now, and that means that the folks in player development have the impossible task of trying to develop players faster so they either help the big-league club directly or become valuable in trades. They could really use a knockout draft class this year to turn things around, unless they’re going to try to tear it down and rebuild.